fertilizer giant Nutrien: the world's two largest potash production areas supply constraints in the future of the fear of shortage.

chief executive of Nutrien, the world's largest fertilizer supplier, warned that the fertilizer supply in Russia and Belarus was more limited than he expected, and the global fertilizer supply might fall into shortage in the future.

Nutrien, said in an interview with Bloomberg on Thursday (1st) that Russia and Belarus are both major fertilizer producers, and exports in both places are restricted due to trade restrictions or war, which will definitely have a significant impact on the market.

Seitz had previously estimated that Belarus's potash exports would be lower this year than last year.

1/3 less to 2/3, it is now expected to halve at least, and Russia's potash exports are expected to decline by 25%.

as the global population continues to grow, in order to obtain enough food, fertilizers that provide nutrients to crops are bound to be indispensable, and fertilizer shortages will lead to higher planting costs and lower yields, ultimately pushing up food prices and hitting consumers.

Seitz said that Nutrien will increase potash production capacity to 18 million tons in 2025, 40% more than in 2020. If the market changes, additional production capacity can be reassessed.

farmers chose to postpone their purchases, causing fertilizer prices to fall from their multi-year highs, resulting in oversupply. The situation is in sharp contrast to earlier this year, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine plunged the global fertilizer market into chaos and sanctions against Belarus also led to higher potash prices.

Seitz estimates that the shortage will continue until next year after farmers digest most of their fertilizer stocks this year.

Nutrien found that in order to ensure supply, some farmers purchase fertilizer in advance, and the sales of fertilizer in advance are 15% to 20% higher than in 2020.

Seitz also expects farmers who have used up all their reserves and have not bought any more this year to flood the fertilizer market and push up prices again.he said: "We think 2023 is not a demand-oriented world, but a supply-oriented world. 」

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